Super El Niño 2026 in Kazakhstan: abnormal heat up to +45 °C in the regions, launch of carbon credits and saving arable land with GREENODIN

Introduction: An extreme challenge for Kazakhstan’s agribusiness

Kazakhstan has officially entered a period of one of the most severe climatic tests in the last decade. The impact of the global climate phenomenon Super El Niño in 2026 superimposed on the internal factors of aridity in Central Asia. According to the official seasonal forecasts of the RSE Kazhydromet, in most of the territory of the republic, the air temperature in the summer of 2026 will consistently exceed the climatic norm by 1–2 °C.

For Kazakhstani farmers, this means prolonged waves of extreme heat, droughts and a progressive shortage of moisture in the soil. The situation is worsened by the fact that at the recent Regional Environmental Summit (RES-2026) in Astana it was stated: more than 2.7 million hectares of arable land in the country are already prone to severe degradation and desertification. In these conditions, traditional intensive agriculture, based on “heavy chemistry”, finally burns out soil humus. The only way out to maintain business profitability is to switch to climate-adaptive agricultural technologies – carbon and regenerative agriculture.

Climate risk map: Summer 2026 by region of the Republic of Kazakhstan

The 2026 summer season in Kazakhstan is characterized by contrasts and an increasing deficit in precipitation towards the end of the season.

1. Southern and Western regions: Infernal heat and drought

(Mangistau, Atyrau, Aktobe, Kyzylorda, Turkestan, Zhambyl regions)

• Forecast: The most vulnerable areas of the country. Extreme temperatures are recorded here in June and August. On some days, thermometers will exceed +40…+45 °C.
• Threats: An acute deficit of precipitation is forecast (significantly below normal). High evaporation of moisture leads to a rapid drop in reservoir levels and drying out of pastures, provoking the risks of a repeat of the large-scale droughts of past years.

2. Main Grain Belt (North and Center): “Temperature Yakils” and squalls

(Kostanay, North Kazakhstan, Akmola, Pavlodar regions, Ulytau region, Karaganda region)

• Forecast: June started with strong fluctuations: from hot daytime +30…+38 °C to sharp nighttime cold snaps. July is expected to be moderately hot (close to normal), but precipitation will be distributed extremely unevenly. In August, the heat will return with renewed vigor (1-2 °C above normal), especially in the central regions.
• Threats: Temperature fluctuations cause dangerous atmospheric phenomena – gusty winds, dry thunderstorms and local hail, which damages grain crops. Due to the heat, moisture from the soil evaporates faster than it can be replenished by local rains.

3. Eastern and Southeastern Regions: Relative Stability

(East Kazakhstan region, Abay, Zhetysu regions, Almaty region)

• Forecast: Temperatures and precipitation in June-July are forecast to be close to the multi-year norm.
• Threats: In mountainous and foothill areas, the risk of night frosts in early summer remains. However, the general trend towards lowering groundwater levels also affects these areas, requiring the implementation of moisture-saving technologies.

Why does the heat of +45 °C destroy the fertility of Kazakhstani soils?

When the soil temperature under the influence of the scorching sun crosses a critical mark, irreversible processes are triggered:

1. Biological sterilization: When the topsoil is heated, the microbiome (beneficial bacteria and nitrogen-fixing microorganisms) is killed. The soil loses its biological activity, turning into a structureless, dead substrate that is unable to hold nutrients.
2. Secondary salinization: Due to extreme evaporation of moisture (transpiration), the groundwater, saturated with salts, is pulled to the surface. The water evaporates, and the salts remain in the root zone. Osmotic (salt) stress occurs: the plant is physically unable to absorb water due to the high concentration of salts and literally “drys out from the inside”.
3. Wind erosion: The topsoil, having lost its moisture and organic structure, turns to dust. The famous steppe winds of Kazakhstan blow away the most valuable fertile layer in a matter of days.

GREENODIN from the AVELife Institute — a shield for Kazakhstan’s soils against drought and salts

In the conditions of the summer of 2026, classic mineral fertilizers do not work, but only increase salt stress in plants. The international research institute AVELife offers an advanced solution to save the crop – complex organo-mineral mixtures of the GREENODIN line.

The mechanism of action of GREENODIN in the extreme climate of the Republic of Kazakhstan:

• Glauconite buffer (Smart Sponge Effect): GREENODIN is based on the natural mineral glauconite – a layered phyllosilicate with an ultra-high sorption capacity. It works as a hydroaccumulator: it retains rare precipitation moisture in the root zone and prevents it from evaporating. During periods of critical heat (+40 °C and above), glauconite gradually releases water to the roots of plants, saving them from drying out.
• Protecting the microbiome from scorching: The beneficial bacterial strains that make up GREENODIN are encapsulated within a mineral matrix. Glauconite serves as a physical temperature shield for them. Once in the soil, the microflora activates the production of natural stress-resistant phytohormones, helping wheat, sunflower and other crops to withstand thermal shock.
• Salt stress relief: Scientific publications in the authoritative journal Frontiers in Plant Science confirm that the application of phyllosilicates (glauconite) effectively binds toxic salts in the soil during drought. This prevents chemical root burn and minimizes the risks of osmotic shock.Salt stress relief: Scientific publications in the authoritative journal Frontiers in Plant Science confirm that the application of phyllosilicates (glauconite) effectively binds toxic salts in the soil during drought. This prevents chemical root burn and minimizes the risks of osmotic shock.%MCEPASTEBIN%

New law, carbon credits and standards of the 2026 ST RK

The introduction of regenerative technologies in Kazakhstan today is not just about survival, but also about enormous economic benefits. The time has come for two fundamental changes for the agricultural market of Kazakhstan:

1. Launch of Carbon Farming: At the RES-2026 Summit, the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Kazakhstan and JSC “Zhasyl Damu” presented the country’s first voluntary carbon credit mechanism (according to the international standard VCS VM0042). Farmers who implement conservation technologies, restore arable land, and retain carbon in the soil can now convert this process into digital green certificates and receive international climate financing. Implementing GREENODIN is a direct path to certification of the farm as carbon-negative.
2. New National Organic Standards (from July 1, 2026): The Ministry of Trade of the Republic of Kazakhstan has put into effect three national standards for the organic sector: ST RK 4041-2026 (PGS Joint Guarantee Systems), ST RK 4042-2026 (Group Certification of Small Farms), and standards for wild plants. These documents remove financial barriers for small farmers and cooperatives, opening them a direct path to premium organic markets without expensive foreign certification.

The most important marker: The use of GREENODIN lines fully complies with the standards of environmentally friendly production and helps farmers quickly obtain the status of an organic producer according to the new rules of the ST RK 2026.

Conclusions: Transition to regenerative rails

The summer of 2026 will finally divide Kazakhstan’s agricultural sector into those left behind and losing profitability due to land degradation, and those looking to the future. Restoring the fertility of steppe soils, protecting against salinization, and retaining moisture with GREENODIN from the AVELife Institute is a guarantee of stable yields despite Super El Niño anomalies and direct access to new revenues from carbon markets.

References block

1. Official forecast of the RSE “Kazhydromet”: What will summer 2026 be like in Kazakhstan: heat up to +45 and drought (Analysis of climate anomalies).
2. ECOJER Association: Launch of carbon agriculture and credits in Kazakhstan at the RES-2026 summit (Official data from ministries on the implementation of arable land decarbonization mechanisms).
3. Ministry of Trade of the Republic of Kazakhstan / Kapital.kz: Kazakhstan is implementing three national standards of the Republic of Kazakhstan for organic farming (PGS Group Certification Instructions for Farmers) from July 1, 2026.
4. Frontiers in Plant Science: Mitigation of Salt Stress by Mineral Amendments
5. GREENODIN на avelife.pro.